There are many theories, but they are all abstract and basically represent a general concept, but amateur astronomer Alberto Caballero calculated the specific probability that people could invade a habitable planet.
In order to get a specific percentage of a possible invasion of an extraterrestrial civilization, Caballero studied the history of wars from 1915 to 2022. During this time period, 51 out of 195 countries had military conflicts. According to the Spaniard. Most often, the United States participated in wars, and they are also leaders in terms of budgets for the army.
Caballero calculated the individual probability of invasion by each country, divided by the number of all countries.
If you believe the calculations of the Spaniard, then the chance of an invasion of earthlings on another intelligent alien life form is 0.028%. Naturally, it must be taken into account that at the moment humanity does not have the technical ability to fly to planets hypothetically inhabited by living organisms. But with the observance of the pace of development of society, in the next 250 years it is not worth worrying about the occupation of another planet.
However, there is also the other side of the coin. Aliens may attack our planet. This probability, an amateur specialist also calculated. The Spaniard, citing a 2012 article that described the possible number of habitable planets in the Milky Way galaxy as about 15,785 civilizations. Applying calculations to these data, about 4 races of aliens from the nearest planets can threaten earthlings.
Related video:
